Will Home Values Drop in the Next Few Years?

Today I’m going to put my neck out on the line. I predict that over 40% of homes in the Northern Virginia area will go down in value in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Here’s why.

We’ve been selling homes in the area for over 15 years. We’ve sold over 600 of them and we’ve seen the ebbs and flows of the market. We know there are certain things you can look at that indicate where the market is going. If you’re working with an agent who can’t break that down, you need to call us.

There are three things in particular that you need to look at when it comes to which properties may go down in value in the next few years.

The first segment of homes that I believe will go down in value are homes built between 2004 and 2007. Most of the homes built during this time had adjustable rates that will balloon sometime soon if they haven’t already; When you have loans that are ballooning and home values that have not increased to those pre-recession levels, that’s a recipe for a foreclosure or short sale. If you’ve got a home built during this time, especially in tertiary markets like Prince William and Loudoun County, expect prices to drop over the next few years. 

Next up is poor renovations. If you’ve done renovations to your home, buyers are more picky about them today than they have been in the past. They are watching HGTV, House Hunters, and YouTube when looking at potential homes and they can spot poor renovations. These homes are undoubtedly going to go down in value.

Finally, if you have active builders in your area, you have built-in competition. Builders will have dozens of homes to sell in some cases and you only have one. They have much more flexibility in price and terms when it comes down to it. If you’re selling a single-family home for $500,000 and there is a builder across the street selling homes for $500,000, you’ve got some stiff competition.